Who Will Win?

And the Oscar goes to. . .

Get a pen handy and mark March 5th on your Snoopy desk calendar. That’s the date for the 79th annual Academy Awards, commonly known to you uneducated masses as the Oscars. Yesterday, the academy woke up super early to announce their nominees. I was misled into thinking they’d do this at a reasonable evening time this year, but whatever. Regardless, for the record, if it matters, which it doesn’t, I want it known that the Dudies were completed before I even looked at this list. The Oscars will not affect the Dudies! Do you hear me?! The only thing that could possible affect the Dudies would be Pia Zadora’s dad. Ask around, Jonathon. Someone will explain it to you. Anyway, let’s take a look at who the nominees are and what my two cents are in regards to ‘em. (By the way, I’ll be looking at each category as they are listed on oscar.com, so it’s a bit of a weird order, but whatever.)

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote, Terrence Howard - Hustle and Flow, Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain, Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line, David Strathairn - Good Night and Good Luck

This is totally Hoffman’s category and good for him. Who would have thought at the beginning of the year that he’d walk away with an Oscar and a Dudie? That’s where it is though. Hoffman’s Capote is the performance of the year hands down. Otherwise, Terrence Howard has no chance in Hell and poor Joaquin Phoenix will likely have been throttled to death by Johnny Cash’s resurrected corpse before the ceremony (which, I suppose, could get some sympathy votes. . .) Admittedly, Heath Ledger and David Strathairn are in position to upset, but I don’t see it happening. Heath is good, but nothing compared to Hoffman this year and no one knows who the hell Strathairn is. Plus, some voters will likely confuse Philip Seymour Hoffman with Dustin Hoffman and that’ll be that.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
George Clooney - Syriana, Matt Dillon - Crash, Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man, Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain, William Hurt - A History of Violence

Much as I loved William Hurt, he doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in Hell. Neither does Matt Dillon. No, conventional wisdom here, and I’m forced to agree, is that it’s going to be a battle of the consolation prize supporting actor Oscars. Giamatti was snubbed last year for his brilliant work in Sideways and there’s no way Clooney’s winning best director, despite a stellar job on Good Night and Good Luck and bonus points for being well liked in Hollywood. So, one of ‘em will probably get the bronze medal of Oscar, best supporting actor. At least, that’s what people think. I’m not sure though. I think Gyllenhaal did well enough in Brokeback to upset things here. It’s a strong performance, sure to garner a good amount of votes and it voters split to much between Giamatti and Clooney, Gyllenhaal will get the gold. Still, for now, I’m leaning toward seeing Clooney pick this one up.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents, Felicity Huffman - Transamerica, Keira Knightley - Pride and Prejudice, Charlize Theron - North Country, Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line

I haven’t seen any of these movies, nor am I really excited about anything here. That seems to be the scuttlebutt, too. Boring best actress category. Right now, Reese has all the buzz and will probably take it, but, from what I hear and what I’ve seen in previews, Felicity Huffman’s work as a transsexual may prove the upset. Plus, Huffman? That’s practically Hoffman and he’s winning best actor. Can the academy resist the Hoffman/Huffman possibilities? Oprah. Uma. Oprah. Uma.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams - Junebug, Catherine Keener - Capote, Frances McDormand - North Country, Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener, Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain

I’m hearing it for Rachel Weisz on this one and that sounds about right to me. There’s some chance of Frances McDormand winning a sort of career award here, but not good enough to bet the farm on.

ANIMATED FEATURE
Howl’s Moving Castle, Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride, Wallace and Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit

Dude. It’s Wallace and Gromit. Everyone loves Wallace and Gromit. They’ve got a solid record winning Oscars for their shorts and their gonna win here. Corpse Bride? Too weird for the Academy. Howl’s Moving Castle? Too Japanese and most of the Academy still hasn’t forgotten Pearl Harbor. Really. It was a bad movie. What was Ben Affleck thinking?

ART DIRECTION
Good Night and Good Luck, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, King Kong, Memoirs of a Geisha, Pride and Prejudice

I have no idea. It seems like Geisha is begging for this one, though, doesn’t it?

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Batman Begins, Brokeback Mountain, Good Night and Good Luck, Memoirs of a Geisha, The New World

As you’ll notice, just like art direction, the Academy really doesn’t give a shit who the cinematographer or art director is. The movie shot itself, damn it. Stupid. And if they do that put all the nominees on the stage at once crap again, I’m gonna lose it. I swear. I’ll go totally Nolte. In the meantime, I’m pretty surprised to see Batman here. Don’t get me wrong, it’s damn well shot, but I didn’t think the academy would be going anywhere near old Bats. After all, academy voters are a cowardly and superstitious lot. Obviously, I think Brokeback Mountain will get this, but I can see Malick’s New World and even Good Night pulling off an upset.

COSTUME DESIGN
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Memoirs of a Geisha, Mrs. Henderson Presents, Pride and Prejudice, Walk the Line

This seems to me to be a fight between Charlie and Geisha. Everything else is pretty much, “Well, the movie is set in the sixties, so. . .um. . . we looked in a book.” Even Geisha really has that problem, its just a little flashier. Charlie at least involved some major effort, designing crap from scratch. So, I’m thinking Charlie, but I can see Geisha. Especially, if a massage is involved.

DIRECTING
Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Crash, Good Night and Good Luck, Munich

Even the director’s don’t get props on the Academy website. I’d remedy this, but I’m way too lazy to go looking for everyone’s name on IMDB. Anyway, is there any doubt that Ang Lee has this bitch wrapped up tight? I didn’t think so. Next!

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Darwin’s Nightmare, Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room, March of the Penguins, Murderball, Street Fight

Who knows. Really, documentary is always such a crap shoot. Penguins are cute, but Murderball is inspiring, but Enron is political. Whatever. I think I’m gonna give it to Street Fight, either the biography of Sonny Chiba or the true story behind M. Bison’s coup for control of the world through a series of one on one brawls. I’m not sure which it is. I’m kind of hoping for M. Bison. That Chung Li is cute.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club, God Sleeps in Rwanda, The Mushroom Club, A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin

No one ever knows. Seriously. Has anyone ever seen any of these? I don’t want to be rude. I’m sure they’re very good. There just isn’t a good venue for these or for the other shorts. Hey, big theater chains, how about showing some of these instead of two back to back Bod body spray commercials?

FILM EDITING
Cinderella Man, The Constant Gardener, Crash, Munich, Walk the Line

Dude. I don’t know. I’ve only seen Crash, which was well edited. I’m giving to Crash. Leave me alone.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Don’t Tell, Joyeux Noel, Paradise Now, Sophie Scholl - The Final Days, Tsotsi

I’m hearing it for Tsotsi, but I don’t really have any idea. I would really like to see like Randy Newman introduce this category and have Tsotsi win. That could really be fun.

MAKEUP
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe, Cinderella Man, Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith

Um. . . . . . .Narnia. I’m saying Narnia. That’s got goat dudes and shit. Cinderfella? That’s just Jerry Lewis in a dress. No real make up there. Star Wars? Aren’t all of those guys done with computers now?

MUSIC (SCORE)
Brokeback Mountain, The Constant Gardner, Memoirs of a Geisha, Munich, Pride and Prejudice

God damn it. I don’t know. Okay?! Jeez. Did John Williams do any of these? He did Munich? Well, guess what’s winning.

MUSIC (SONG)
“In the Deep” from Crash, “It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp” from Hustle and Flow, “Travelin’ Thru” from Transamerica

In a huge upset, I’m giving this to “The Glory of Love” from Karate Kid 2.

BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Crash, Good Night and Good Luck, Munich

It’s Brokeback Mountain. We all know it’s Brokeback Mountain. Capote? They’re buying that off with Hoffman’s best actor. Crash? Came out too long ago for anyone to care. Good Night and Good Luck? Too thinky. Munich? If you take out the “i,” the movie is Munch and there’s no way a movie called Munch is winning best picture. Really, I haven’t seen Munch yet, but these are all worthy pictures. The truth is, though, that Brokeback is just that much better and everyone loves it and it’s about gay guys so the Academy can feel like it’s being all liberal and socially conscious. It’s a lock. Put the cat out early and go to bed.

Well, it was a long list and toward the end there. . . what? There’s more? Wouldn’t you end on picture? Jesus.

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Badgered, The Moon and the Son: An Imgained Conversation, The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello, 9, One Man Band

????????

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Ausreisser (The Runaway), Cashback, The Last Farm, Our Time Is Up, Six Shooter

See above comments.

SOUND EDITING
King Kong, Memoirs of a Geisha, War of the Worlds

Good God. Who knows. Did Murch do any of these? No? Crap. Um. . . King Kong. That’s what I’m saying.

SOUND MIXING
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe, King Kong, Memoirs of a Geisha, Walk the Line, War of the Worlds

There’s a difference? Seriously. There is. Just don’t ask me to explain it. I’m giving it to Walk the Line on account of all the singin’.

VISUAL EFFECTS
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lions, the Tigers, the Bears, Oh My, King Kong, War of the Worlds

Dude. It’s gonna be Kong. That’s one convincing monkey.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Brokeback Mountain, Capote, The Constant Gardener, A History of Violence, Munich

Again, I don’t really have a feel for a stand out contender here, but I’m going with Capote. I just feel it for Capote. Very well written. Feels like a good adaptation.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Crash, Good Night and Good Luck, Match Point, The Squid and the Whale, Syriana

Okay. Here we go. Now, this is a different thing than adapted. I don’t need to have also read a book to give an opinion here. Of course, it would help if I’d seen more than two of these. Still, I’m feeling pretty good about Crash. It’s a very complex story and the way the various threads move and weave together is really very nice and anything but obvious, definite definite skill in the writing of this sucker. That said, I can see Match Point as a spoiler, given that Woody wrote it and everyone loves Woody (everyone except Mia! Zing!). The Squid and the Whale also seems to have good cred and it has that whole smaller, indy thing going for it. Still, smart money, or my money at least, is on Crash.

And with that, I’m finally done. Expect the ceremony to run somewhere around seven and a half hours. I’m gonna go get some codine and sack out. I’ll see you kids tomorrow.