The Production Dude Picks the Oscars

Alright, gang, The 80th Annual Academy Awards airs on Sunday night. That’s right, eighty years. Expect lots of clip reels celebrating “80 Years of Oscar” (God, I love clip reels). Meanwhile, Jon Stewart is back to host, so expect a lot of awkward responses from the audience, while I laugh my ass off. Robert Boyle, art director of 1987’s Dragnet will be getting an honorary Oscar.

Anyway, without further adieu, here are my picks (an * indicates that I didn’t see the damn movie).

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees: George Clooney (Michael Clayton), Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood), Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street), Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah*), Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)

This is totally Daniel Day Lewis’ Oscar to lose. His portrayal of oil magnate Daniel Plainview is at once gripping and powerful. In some ways, it’s even reminiscent of Welles’ portrayal of Charles Foster Kane, albeit without much of the charm. Day Lewis definitely deserves the win here and I expect him to get it, not only for this film, but in silent recognition of his work in The Gangs of New York as well. The only other actor who has a chance is Clooney, whom Hollywood loves and who did win supporting actor last year – usually a good sign for a win the following year. Still, Clooney is a decided dark horse pick.

My Pick: Daniel Day Lewis

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford), Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson’s War*), Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild*), Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)

A huge part of me would love to see this go to Casey Affleck, who really did turn in a spectacular performance as the titular coward, Robert Ford. That said, Javier Bardem came out of absolutely nowhere this year to turn in an amazing performance as Anton Chigurh, the bad guy in No Country for Old Men and, quite possibly, one of the finest screen villains of the past decade. Arguably, since so much of No Country is built around a character study of evil and how others deal with it – Chigurh (pronounced, more or less, Sugar) being that evil personified – this really should be a full-blown leading actor Oscar. Regardless, this is an immensely powerful performance and an easy win with Affleck alone offering competition as the darkest of horses. PS – Where’s the nominee for There Will Be Blood’s crazy preacher?

My Pick: Javier Bardem

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age*), Julie Christie (Away from Her*), Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose*), Laura Linney (The Savages*), Ellen Page (Juno)

This is always such a hard category to call, particularly in a year with no real stand-out performances. Don’t get me wrong, Ellen Page was phenomenal, but Oscar doesn’t like to award youth. Cate Blanchett is likewise out of the running since she’s going to win best supporting actress (more on that in a minute), so I’m giving it to Julie Christie. Why? Well, she won the Golden Globe, which in a year without a telecast probably means less than it usually does, and, I just plain like Julie Christie.

My Pick: Julie Christie

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There*), Ruby Dee (American Gangster*), Saoirse Ronan (Atonement), Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone), Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)

As I said above, this is all Cate Blanchett. In I’m Not There, Cate is one of several actors to portray Bob Dylan and Oscar loves a woman playing a man. It’s as simple as that.

My Pick: Cate Blanchette

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Persepolis*, Ratatouille, Surf’s Up*

Surf’s Up? Really? Regardless, there can be no doubt that this is all Ratatouille.

My Pick: Ratatouille

CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, Atonement, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly*, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood

Woof. The cinematography is awesome in Jesse James and I’d like to see it win this award both for the beautiful photography by Roger Deakins and so that it wins something. That said, the cinematography in Atonement, No Country for Old Men, and There Will Be Blood is all awesome as well. Damn it. Of course, it’s worth noting that Deakins also shot No Country for Old Men, further confusing the issue. I expect the academy to award Deakins for one of these pictures, especially since he’s never won, despite having shot pictures like The Shawshank Redemption, but it’s really hard to say which. In that no one saw Jesse James, I’m giving it to No Country.

My Pick: No Country for Old Men

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Atonement, Away from Her*, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly*, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood

There’re a lot of really good screenplays here. From what I hear, the screenplay for No Country is shockingly faithful, but here’s the thing: I don’t think Atonement is going to win much else (except, like, costume direction), despite taking the Golden Globe for best picture. As such, I think the Academy will give their big nod to Attonement here. If not, expect No Country to win since, you know, it deserves it. Also, There Will Be Blood could win. What can I say? It’s a tough year.

My Pick: Atonement

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Juno, Lars and the Real Girl, Michael Clayton, Ratatouille, The Savages*

I see Juno winning this one. Everybody likes this movie and that’s mostly due to the screenplay. Plus, I’m sure all of Hollywood wants to see what weird ass outfit Minneapolis native Diablo Cody will wear.

My Pick: Juno

DIRECTING

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly*, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood

Now it gets really hard. It seems to me that big contenders for both directing and best picture are No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood. They’re both damn good movies with large critical followings, so I expect the academy to split directing and picture. The question is, which will win which. My guess is that the directing Oscar will go to No Country and auteur directors Joel and Ethan Coen. The Coen’s are long overdue for this Oscar and I’m guessing the academy will recognize that. Plus, it’s worth noting that Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Bloods’ director) isn’t really a known directing entity yet (his previous film, Magnolia, is God awful – despite what respected critics and certain John Welshes think) and wasn’t even nominated for a directing Golden Globe.

My Pick: No Country for Old Men

BEST PICTURE

Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood

If No Country for Old Men takes the Oscar for best directing, There Will Be Blood will take best picture, which is fine with me. It’s a damn good movie that, in some ways, reminds me of old school movie making and the work of Welles and Kubrick. Plus, it frankly has a much more traditional structure than No Country for Old Men and I think No Country’s odd form, while appealing to me, will turn off some voters. There is a dark horse here, though, in that I really think Juno could come out of nowhere and win this. It really depends on the academy. The problem as I see it is that, with the exception of Juno, this year’s best picture nominees just don’t seem to connect with audiences as past nominees have. Don’t get me wrong I like all of them except for Atonement, but here’s the thing – Atonement is kind of long and boring, There Will Be Blood is very popular with critics, but very divisive among average film goers, No Country has the aforementioned strange structure, the end of which, I think, really turns off some, and Michael Clayton is kind of an oddly paced thriller and a bit of a downer. Meanwhile, I don’t think any of this will really affect the academy, but it could and, if it does, Juno will come out of absolutely nowhere to win.

My Pick: There Will Be Blood

See you soon with The Dudies and next week with an Oscar wrap-up.